COP31 Presidency proposes electrification target of 35% by 2035

Australia proposes 35% electricity target for 2035 at global climate talks

Australia’s COP31 presidency has put forward a global target for electricity to meet 35% of final energy demand by 2035. The proposal, announced during climate negotiations in Bonn on 9 June, forms part of a wider package that includes new goals on waste and energy efficiency. For UK businesses tracking climate policy, this signals how quickly major economies expect energy systems to shift away from direct fossil fuel use.

The 35% figure represents a significant acceleration from current levels. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, electricity accounts for roughly 23% of global final energy consumption today. Reaching 35% within a decade would require substantial changes across industry, buildings, and transport. IRENA’s analysis suggests electricity’s share would need to exceed 50% by 2050, with most new demand met by renewable sources.

This proposal matters because it translates the abstract goal of moving away from fossil fuels into a concrete, measurable benchmark. The Australian presidency appears to be using electrification as a central pillar of its COP31 agenda, alongside waste reduction and energy efficiency measures. Together, these targets aim to provide a framework for tracking progress on decarbonization commitments made at previous climate summits.

IRENA’s updated roadmap describes the revised pathway as reflecting current geopolitical and market realities. However, it still requires faster reductions in fossil fuel consumption than many countries are currently achieving. The agency’s data specifically supports establishing a global electrification target for 2035, complemented by parallel goals for grid infrastructure and system flexibility.

Electrification becomes a formal metric in climate diplomacy

The significance of this proposal lies in how it reframes electrification. Previously treated as a background trend, the Australian presidency is now positioning it as a measurable transition metric that countries can negotiate and report against. This represents a shift in climate diplomacy towards tangible indicators that link energy policy to decarbonization outcomes.

A dialogue video produced by COP31 and the International Energy Agency outlines the same trajectory. It shows electricity rising from approximately 21% of final energy use today to 35% by 2035, then exceeding 50% by mid-century. The consistency between IRENA’s roadmap and the IEA dialogue suggests growing consensus among technical agencies on the pace of change required.

Nevertheless, the proposal’s impact will depend on political acceptance. Countries may treat it as a voluntary reference point rather than a binding commitment. The Australian presidency appears to be testing whether a numerical electrification goal can gain the same traction as renewable capacity targets or emissions reduction pledges.

For businesses, this development provides an early indication of the direction international climate policy may take. If the 35% target gains support, it could influence national energy strategies, industrial policy, and infrastructure investment priorities across multiple jurisdictions.

Grid infrastructure and flexibility emerge as critical factors

IRENA emphasizes that the electrification target cannot be considered in isolation. According to the agency, achieving 35% electricity share by 2035 requires parallel targets for grid expansion and system flexibility. This recognition reflects a practical constraint: electricity grids were not designed to handle the rapid load growth and variable renewable generation that deeper electrification entails.

System flexibility refers to the ability of power systems to respond to changes in supply and demand. As renewable generation increases, grids need more storage, demand-side response, and interconnection capacity. Without these elements, higher electrification rates could lead to reliability problems or curtailment of renewable output.

The Australian presidency’s package therefore links electrification ambitions to infrastructure requirements. This approach acknowledges that setting a demand-side target without addressing supply-side constraints would be ineffective. For UK manufacturers and energy-intensive industries, this has direct implications for investment planning and procurement strategies.

Many businesses are already electrifying heat processes, transport fleets, and industrial operations. However, the pace and viability of these transitions depend on grid capacity, tariff structures, and access to renewable electricity. A global electrification target could accelerate policy support for grid upgrades, but it may also expose gaps between ambition and infrastructure readiness.

What the 35% benchmark means for UK businesses

UK companies need to understand how this international target relates to domestic policy trajectories. The government has committed to decarbonizing the power sector by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050. Electrification of heating, industry, and transport forms a core part of these plans. Consequently, the COP31 proposal aligns with existing UK policy direction, even if the specific 35% figure has not been adopted domestically.

For businesses, the practical question is whether current electricity infrastructure can support accelerated electrification. Distribution network operators are already managing increased connection requests for heat pumps, EV chargers, and industrial electrification projects. A global policy push towards 35% electricity share by 2035 could intensify these pressures, potentially affecting connection timescales and grid reinforcement costs.

Supply chain implications also warrant attention. Companies that rely on energy-intensive suppliers may face changing cost structures as those suppliers shift from gas or oil to electricity. Similarly, businesses tendering for public sector contracts may encounter evolving requirements around energy sourcing and decarbonization pathways, particularly if international targets influence procurement criteria.

Furthermore, the link between electrification and renewable energy creates indirect effects. If electricity demand grows faster than renewable capacity, emissions intensity of grid power could rise temporarily. Businesses tracking Scope 2 emissions need to monitor how quickly renewable generation scales relative to electrification of end uses. This matters for carbon reporting, net zero commitments, and compliance with frameworks like PPN 06/21.

Energy costs represent another consideration. Electricity prices in the UK include policy costs, network charges, and wholesale market volatility. Significantly higher electricity demand could affect these components differently. Wholesale prices might fall if renewable capacity expands rapidly, but network charges could rise to fund grid upgrades. Companies planning major electrification investments should model these scenarios carefully.

Key facts about the electrification target proposal

• Australia’s COP31 presidency announced a proposed global target for electricity to meet 35% of final energy demand by 2035.
• The target was presented alongside new goals on waste and energy efficiency during climate negotiations in Bonn on 9 June.
• IRENA’s analysis shows electricity currently represents roughly 23% of global final energy consumption, requiring substantial acceleration to reach 35% by 2035.
• The proposal includes complementary targets for grid infrastructure and system flexibility, recognizing that electrification depends on adequate power system capacity.
• IRENA’s roadmap projects electricity’s share exceeding 50% by 2050, with most new demand met by renewable sources.
• The target would translate commitments to transition away from fossil fuels into a measurable metric that countries can negotiate and report against.
• Political acceptance remains uncertain, with countries potentially treating the target as a voluntary reference point rather than a binding obligation.

How businesses should assess electrification exposure and opportunity

Companies should start by mapping their current energy use across fuels. Understanding what proportion of total energy comes from electricity versus gas, oil, or other sources provides a baseline for evaluating exposure to future policy shifts. This assessment becomes particularly relevant for organizations with significant heat or process energy requirements that currently rely on fossil fuels.

Next, businesses should evaluate the technical feasibility and economic case for electrifying specific operations. Not all processes can be electrified easily or cost-effectively with current technology. However, where electrification is viable, early action may secure better grid connection terms and access to transition funding or support schemes.

Procurement strategies may need adjustment. Organizations should consider how electricity purchasing arrangements align with decarbonization goals. Power purchase agreements, renewable energy certificates, and time-of-use tariffs all influence both costs and emissions outcomes. As electrification accelerates, securing favorable terms for renewable electricity could become more competitive.

For businesses involved in infrastructure, construction, or energy services, the electrification agenda creates commercial opportunities. Demand for grid connections, battery storage, EV charging infrastructure, and heat pump installations will likely grow if international targets gain traction. Positioning to serve this demand requires understanding both the technical requirements and the policy frameworks that will shape investment.

Supply chain resilience also deserves attention. Businesses should engage with key suppliers to understand their decarbonization plans and electrification timelines. Disruption to supplier operations due to energy transitions could affect continuity of supply. Conversely, suppliers that electrify early may gain competitive advantages through lower emissions intensity and improved tender competitiveness.

Finally, companies should monitor how international climate targets translate into UK policy. The government typically considers international commitments when updating domestic frameworks. A widely adopted global electrification target could influence future versions of the Net Zero Strategy, industrial decarbonization roadmaps, or building regulations. Businesses that track these policy developments can anticipate requirements rather than react to them.

We work with businesses on carbon reporting and decarbonization planning that addresses energy transition risks and opportunities. Understanding how electrification fits within broader net zero strategies helps organizations make informed decisions about infrastructure investment, procurement, and compliance.

Where to find authoritative guidance on energy transitions

The UK government provides detailed information on net zero policy and industrial decarbonization through the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. This includes sector-specific guidance on electrification pathways for industry, heating, and transport.

For technical analysis on renewable energy and electrification trends, the International Renewable Energy Agency publishes regular reports and data that inform international climate negotiations. These resources offer insight into the evidence base behind proposals like the 35% target.

Ofgem, the UK energy regulator, maintains guidance on grid connections, network capacity, and electricity market developments relevant to businesses planning electrification projects. This includes information on connection processes and network reinforcement.

Finally, the Climate Change Agreements scheme operated by the Environment Agency provides a framework for energy-intensive industries to manage electricity costs while meeting efficiency and decarbonization requirements. This may become increasingly relevant as electrification accelerates across industrial sectors.