How could Andy Burnham as Prime Minister affect the UK’s net-zero agenda?

Burnham’s regional net zero record in Greater Manchester

Andy Burnham has spent eight years as Mayor of Greater Manchester building a local climate track record that may signal his approach as Prime Minister. During that time, he set a 2038 net zero target for the city region and launched practical initiatives including bus fleet electrification and home insulation programmes. He also opposed fracking in northwest England when the industry sought to expand there.

His public statements have consistently framed net zero as an economic opportunity rather than a burden. In 2025, he backed a global fossil fuel treaty, calling it a lifeline for governments worldwide. Earlier, he stated that Britain should become a green leader and urged the country not to turn away from net zero commitments.

However, climate policy has not been his most vocal priority at a national level. Some observers note that while he supports the agenda, it may not sit at the top of his policy focus. This does not necessarily mean he will weaken climate targets, but it does suggest other issues may compete for attention.

Burnham has also been clear about his opposition to what he calls heavy-handed approaches. He argues that imposing penalties on businesses or households will trigger public resistance and ultimately undermine progress. This preference for pragmatism over enforcement runs through much of his policy thinking.

Public ownership and centralised green investment

One of the most significant shifts under a Burnham government would likely be the renationalisation of key utilities. He has proposed bringing energy grids, water companies such as Thames Water, and parts of the transport network back under public control. The stated aim is to improve efficiency and reduce household bills.

This approach could have major implications for decarbonisation. Centralised ownership would allow the government to direct green investment more quickly than under fragmented private ownership. It aligns with the model Burnham used in Greater Manchester, where public control of the bus network enabled faster electrification.

For example, a publicly owned energy grid could prioritise connections for renewable generation projects without the commercial delays that currently slow deployment. Similarly, public water companies could be required to meet strict environmental standards without shareholder dividend pressures.

Burnham has proposed a £65 billion public-private investment package to achieve Greater Manchester’s 2038 net zero target. If scaled nationally, this kind of spending could significantly accelerate the transition. The question is whether it would be delivered alongside or instead of existing commitments like Great British Energy.

North Sea drilling and the tension with clean power targets

Burnham has described himself as open-minded on North Sea oil and gas, a position that creates immediate tension with the 2030 clean power target. Labour’s 2024 manifesto banned new drilling licences, but Burnham’s comments suggest he may take a more flexible view on existing projects.

Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, clarified that Burnham would honour the manifesto ban. She described recent speculation about new drilling as overblown but acknowledged a change of emphasis and a more pragmatic approach. This leaves room for interpretation, particularly around what counts as a new licence versus an extension of existing operations.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has already implemented the manifesto ban. Nevertheless, Burnham’s public stance suggests he may be willing to revisit the issue if economic conditions or energy security concerns intensify. Critics argue this would slow the decarbonisation of the UK’s energy mix and conflict with international climate commitments.

The UK Climate Change Committee has repeatedly warned that continued fossil fuel extraction is incompatible with net zero targets. Allowing new drilling, even under existing licences, would send a mixed signal to investors in renewable energy and undermine the UK’s credibility at international climate negotiations.

Reindustrialisation and the risk of competing priorities

Burnham has made reindustrialisation a core theme of his leadership. He wants to restore manufacturing jobs and rebuild the UK’s industrial base, particularly in regions that have experienced decades of decline. This ambition resonates with voters in former industrial areas and aligns with his political base.

However, reindustrialisation creates potential conflicts with rapid decarbonisation. If new industrial capacity relies on fossil fuels as a transition energy source, it could lock in emissions for years. Manufacturing sectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals are among the hardest to decarbonise and require significant upfront investment in low-carbon technologies.

The risk is that economic growth becomes the primary goal, with climate targets treated as secondary. This would represent a shift from the current government’s approach, which has tried to integrate industrial policy with net zero commitments. Burnham’s focus on jobs and growth could divert political capital and funding away from climate priorities.

Nevertheless, reindustrialisation does not have to conflict with decarbonisation. If new industrial capacity is built around clean technologies such as green hydrogen, carbon capture, or advanced battery manufacturing, it could support both goals. The question is whether Burnham’s government would enforce those requirements or allow cheaper, carbon-intensive options to dominate.

What UK businesses need to understand about policy direction

Businesses should expect continuity on the overall net zero trajectory but with significant changes in how policy is delivered. Public ownership of utilities will reshape the operating environment for energy, water, and transport sectors. Companies in those industries should prepare for potential nationalisation and the regulatory changes that would follow.

For manufacturers and industrial operators, the emphasis on reindustrialisation may create new opportunities for investment and growth. However, it remains unclear whether government support will prioritise low-carbon technologies or accept higher emissions in exchange for faster job creation. Firms should monitor policy developments closely and engage early with government consultations.

Energy-intensive businesses may benefit from lower costs if public ownership delivers on its promise to reduce bills. Conversely, they could face stricter environmental requirements if centralised control is used to accelerate decarbonisation. The balance between these two outcomes will depend on Treasury priorities and whether climate targets are maintained as non-negotiable.

Supply chain operators should prepare for continued growth in renewable energy deployment, even if the 2030 clean power target is softened. The economic case for renewables remains strong, and investor confidence in the sector is unlikely to collapse unless there is a dramatic policy reversal. However, any weakening of targets would slow the pace of deployment and reduce the scale of opportunities.

Public sector suppliers need to maintain their focus on carbon reporting and net zero credentials. Procurement Note 06/21 remains in force, and there is no indication that Burnham would remove carbon reduction requirements from government tenders. If anything, public ownership could lead to stricter environmental criteria in contracts for utilities and infrastructure.

Pressure from the Tony Blair Institute and climate advocates

External voices are already shaping the debate around Burnham’s climate policy. The Tony Blair Institute has urged him to abandon the 2030 clean power target, arguing it is unrealistic given current economic conditions. The Institute has significant influence within centrist Labour circles and its advice often aligns with business lobbying groups.

Dropping the 2030 target would represent a major retreat from climate ambition. It would also undermine investor confidence in the UK’s renewable energy sector, which has been built on the assumption of rapid grid decarbonisation. Industry groups such as RenewableUK have consistently argued that the target is achievable with the right policy support.

Climate advocates and organisations like Green Alliance have warned Burnham to stick to scientific evidence and maintain Labour’s historic commitment to climate action. They argue that any softening of targets would be incompatible with the UK’s legal net zero obligation and its international reputation on climate leadership.

The tension between these two camps will define much of Burnham’s early premiership. If he sides with the Blair Institute, he will face fierce criticism from environmental groups and potential legal challenges. If he holds firm on the 2030 target, he will need to demonstrate that it can be achieved without undermining economic growth or public support.

Five key points for business leaders

• Burnham supports net zero overall but favours pragmatic delivery over enforcement, which may slow the pace of regulatory pressure on businesses.
• Renationalisation of energy grids and water companies will reshape those sectors and could accelerate green investment through centralised control.
• His open-minded stance on North Sea drilling creates uncertainty around energy policy and may conflict with the 2030 clean power target.
• Reindustrialisation will be a major priority, but it remains unclear whether new manufacturing capacity will be required to meet low-carbon standards.
• External pressure from both the Tony Blair Institute and climate advocates will influence whether the 2030 clean power target is maintained or softened.

How businesses should prepare for policy uncertainty

Companies should plan for multiple scenarios rather than assuming policy continuity. Therefore, scenario planning should include a base case where the 2030 target is maintained, a downside case where it is softened or delayed, and an upside case where public ownership accelerates decarbonisation faster than expected.

Energy procurement strategies should be reviewed in light of potential changes to grid ownership and renewable deployment rates. Businesses with long-term power purchase agreements may benefit from locking in current pricing before market conditions shift. Those without agreements should assess whether now is the right time to secure renewable energy contracts.

Carbon reporting requirements are unlikely to change in the short term. Consequently, businesses should continue to improve their Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions data and ensure compliance with existing regulations. Public sector suppliers must maintain their carbon reduction plans to remain eligible for government contracts.

Firms in manufacturing and heavy industry should engage with government consultations on reindustrialisation. Early engagement will help shape policy in ways that support business needs while meeting environmental standards. It will also position companies to access any new funding or incentives that emerge from industrial strategy.

Businesses should also monitor regulatory developments around public ownership. If utilities are renationalised, contract terms and performance requirements may change. Companies that supply services to energy, water, or transport operators should prepare for new procurement processes and potentially stricter environmental criteria.

Our support for carbon reporting and compliance

We help businesses navigate the evolving policy landscape through our net zero program, which provides structured support for carbon reporting and PPN 06/21 compliance. This ensures you remain eligible for public sector contracts regardless of how national policy develops.

Our ESG compliance service helps businesses understand their regulatory obligations and build resilient reporting systems that can adapt to changing requirements. We work with firms across all sectors to develop practical approaches to carbon management that align with commercial realities.

For businesses looking to build internal capability, our training programs cover carbon accounting, Scope 3 emissions, and supply chain decarbonisation. These skills will remain valuable regardless of short-term policy shifts, as the long-term direction towards net zero is unchanged.

Where to find authoritative policy information

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero publishes updates on clean power targets, renewable energy policy, and North Sea licensing decisions. This is the primary source for official government positions as they develop.

The UK Climate Change Committee provides independent advice on whether government policy is consistent with net zero targets. Their annual progress reports assess policy gaps and offer evidence-based recommendations.

For procurement policy and carbon reduction requirements in public contracts, the Procurement Policy Note 06/21 guidance remains the definitive reference. Businesses should check this regularly for updates to carbon reduction plan requirements.

Industry bodies such as the Institution of Engineering and Technology and the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment publish sector-specific analysis of how policy changes affect different industries. These resources help translate national policy into practical implications for specific business operations.