Grappling with growth: How CCEP kept to climate science as it expanded into the Philippines

Coca-Cola bottler expands in climate-vulnerable Philippines

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners entered the Philippine market in 2024 through a bottling acquisition. The move raises a commercial question many UK manufacturers now face. How do you grow into emerging markets while meeting science-based carbon targets?

The Philippines offers strong growth potential. However, it also sits among the countries most exposed to climate risk. National emissions could reach 334 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030 under current policies. That represents an 84% increase from 2010 levels.

CCEP’s sustainability VP Joe Franses explained the company has recalibrated its expansion to fit within validated climate commitments. The approach matters because it shows how multinationals balance commercial growth against binding emissions reductions. For UK suppliers eyeing international expansion, the model offers practical lessons.

Philippines climate policy creates investment uncertainty

The Philippine government published its 2024 Energy Plan earlier this year. The document positions fossil gas as a transition fuel. Notably, it includes no coal phase-out date. That creates energy security risks as global gas markets remain volatile.

Current policy trajectories push the country well beyond its conditional climate pledge. The nationally determined contribution commits to 101 million tonnes by 2030. Projected emissions under planned policies could hit between 295 and 310 million tonnes. The gap underscores weak policy alignment with international climate goals.

Meeting a 1.5°C pathway would require the Philippines to phase out all fossil fuels by 2040. Additionally, industries would need full electrification and major efficiency improvements. The scale of that transition presents both commercial opportunity and regulatory uncertainty for incoming investors.

Climate finance offers some support. At COP28, the Asian Development Bank agreed a 10 billion dollar facility with the Philippine government. The funds target low-carbon infrastructure through 2029. Germany also backs the Climate Change Commission through the SupportCCC Phase II programme, strengthening national implementation capacity.

CCEP ties bottling growth to science-based carbon limits

CCEP operates as a major Coca-Cola bottler across Europe and Asia-Pacific. The company announced its Philippine entry as part of a wider sustainability framework. That framework aligns volume growth with emissions reductions validated by the Science Based Targets initiative.

In 2025, CCEP committed one billion euros to sustainable operations upgrades. The investment funds efficiency improvements and low-carbon initiatives across its network. Those measures apply to established markets and new entries like the Philippines.

The challenge lies in the numbers. Philippine greenhouse gas emissions from energy could quadruple by 2030 due to urbanisation. Transport emissions may double over the same period. Any bottling operation adds to those totals through production, refrigeration, and distribution.

Consequently, CCEP must offset new emissions through renewable energy procurement, circular packaging systems, or supply chain decarbonisation. The company has not published disaggregated emissions data for the Philippine operation. Therefore, tracking actual performance against stated targets remains difficult for external observers.

UK manufacturers face similar expansion dilemmas

Many UK businesses now consider growth in emerging economies. Those markets offer volume potential but bring environmental and regulatory complexity. CCEP’s approach illustrates the tension between commercial objectives and climate commitments.

First, expansion into high-growth regions increases absolute emissions even with efficiency gains. A bottling line in Metro Manila generates Scope 1 and 2 emissions from operations. It also creates Scope 3 emissions through refrigerated distribution and packaging waste. UK manufacturers entering similar markets must model those impacts accurately.

Second, science-based targets require absolute emissions reductions across the value chain. Growth in carbon-intensive geographies makes that harder. Companies must find offsetting reductions elsewhere or invest heavily in low-carbon technology from day one. Both options carry cost implications.

Third, regulatory environments in emerging markets often lag behind EU or UK standards. The Philippine Energy Plan’s reliance on fossil gas contrasts sharply with UK policy. Businesses operating across jurisdictions face inconsistent rules on reporting, renewable energy mandates, and carbon pricing.

Fourth, climate vulnerability affects operational continuity. The Philippines experiences frequent typhoons, flooding, and extreme heat. Physical climate risks threaten supply chains, production facilities, and workforce safety. Insurance costs and business interruption risks rise accordingly.

Finally, tender requirements increasingly demand proof of climate action. UK suppliers bidding for public sector contracts under PPN 06/21 must demonstrate net-zero plans. Similar expectations now appear in private sector supply chains. International expansion that increases emissions could therefore harm competitiveness at home.

What UK businesses should consider before expanding

UK companies evaluating growth into emerging markets need robust climate due diligence. That process should cover several areas.

Assess the host country’s policy trajectory. Understand whether national climate commitments align with international standards. Identify gaps between pledges and projected outcomes. Evaluate energy security and the likelihood of carbon pricing or fossil fuel phase-outs. Those factors affect long-term operating costs and regulatory risk.

Model the full emissions impact of new operations. Include Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions in your baseline calculations. Determine whether growth pushes you beyond science-based targets. If so, identify mitigation measures such as renewable energy contracts, electrified logistics, or packaging redesign. Cost those measures into your investment case.

Map physical climate risks to facilities and supply chains. Use climate scenario analysis to understand exposure to flooding, heat stress, or water scarcity. Build adaptation measures into site selection and design. Factor resilience costs into financial projections.

Review reporting obligations in both jurisdictions. Ensure your data systems can track emissions by geography and consolidate them for UK disclosure requirements. Many businesses discover inconsistent data quality when they expand internationally. That creates compliance risk and undermines credibility.

Engage with local stakeholders early. Understand community expectations around environmental performance and employment practices. Build relationships with regulators, industry bodies, and civil society organisations. Early engagement reduces opposition and identifies partnership opportunities.

Consider how international expansion affects your UK competitive position. Review tender criteria, investor expectations, and customer requirements. Ensure growth strategies support rather than undermine your climate credentials. Some businesses find that avoiding high-carbon markets protects long-term value even if it limits short-term growth.

Critical details for business planning

• The Philippines faces projected emissions of 334 million tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2030 under current policies, an 84% increase from 2010 levels that far exceeds its conditional climate target of 101 million tonnes.
• CCEP announced entry into the Philippine bottling market in 2024 as part of a sustainability framework aligned with science-based climate targets validated by the Science Based Targets initiative.
• The company committed one billion euros in 2025 for sustainable operations upgrades including efficiency improvements and low-carbon initiatives across its network.
• Philippine energy policy positions fossil gas as a transition fuel with no coal phase-out date, creating energy security risks amid global market volatility.
• A 10 billion dollar climate finance facility agreed at COP28 between the Asian Development Bank and Philippine government targets low-carbon infrastructure investment through 2029.
• Meeting a 1.5°C pathway would require the Philippines to phase out all fossil fuels by 2040 alongside full industrial electrification and major efficiency improvements.

Balancing growth against binding emissions limits

CCEP’s Philippine expansion tests whether large manufacturers can grow in emerging markets while meeting absolute emissions reductions. The answer depends on execution. Companies must invest in low-carbon infrastructure from the start, not retrofit later. They need transparent reporting that tracks progress against targets by geography.

For UK businesses, the lesson is clear. International growth requires climate due diligence as rigorous as financial or legal review. Emerging markets offer commercial opportunity but bring environmental complexity. Ignoring that complexity creates regulatory, reputational, and financial risk.

Investors and customers increasingly expect alignment between growth strategies and climate commitments. Public sector procurement rules like PPN 06/21 demand evidence of net-zero planning. Private supply chains follow similar expectations. Expansion that undermines climate performance therefore threatens competitiveness across all markets.

The Philippine case also highlights policy risk. National climate ambition varies widely. Energy security concerns, development priorities, and political cycles all affect regulatory trajectories. Businesses entering markets with weak climate policies face uncertainty around future carbon costs, renewable energy availability, and physical climate impacts.

Adaptation must sit alongside mitigation in any expansion plan. The Philippines’ high climate vulnerability illustrates why. Typhoons, flooding, and heat waves disrupt operations and supply chains. Resilience measures cost money but protect long-term value. Businesses that skip adaptation planning expose themselves to uninsurable risks.

We work with manufacturers navigating these trade-offs through our net-zero program for carbon reporting compliance. Many discover that robust climate planning strengthens rather than constrains growth. It identifies efficiency opportunities, reduces energy costs, and improves competitive positioning. However, it requires honest assessment of emissions impacts and willingness to invest in mitigation from day one.

CCEP’s approach shows that expansion and emissions reduction can coexist. Nevertheless, success depends on transparent reporting, validated targets, and sufficient investment in low-carbon infrastructure. For UK businesses considering similar moves, the question is not whether to address climate impacts but how to build that work into commercial strategy from the outset.

Where to find detailed policy and technical information

The UK government provides guidance on international climate policy and trade considerations through the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. The department publishes analysis of national climate commitments and energy transitions in key trading partners.

Businesses evaluating science-based targets can access technical criteria and validation processes through the Science Based Targets initiative. The initiative sets standards for corporate emissions reductions aligned with climate science and offers sector-specific guidance.

The Climate Action Tracker provides independent analysis of national climate policies and their alignment with international goals. The tracker assesses policy gaps and projects emissions trajectories under different scenarios.

For support with carbon reporting, supply chain emissions, and climate risk assessment, our compliance services help UK businesses meet regulatory requirements and build credible climate strategies. We also offer training through SBS Academy on Scope 3 emissions, science-based targets, and international expansion planning.