Study finds global warming accelerating towards Paris target risk

Global warming rate jumps 75% in the past decade

New research confirms what many climate scientists suspected but could not prove until now. Global temperatures have been rising faster since 2015 than at any point in modern records. The warming rate has jumped from 0.2°C per decade to roughly 0.35°C per decade.

This matters because the speed of change affects how quickly businesses need to adapt. Faster warming means more frequent extreme weather, tighter regulations, and greater pressure on supply chains. For UK companies already managing net zero commitments, this acceleration changes the timeline for action.

The study appears in Geophysical Research Letters, published in March 2026. Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research worked with statistician Grant Foster to analyze five major global temperature datasets. Their methods achieved over 98% statistical certainty that warming has accelerated.

Scientists remove natural variations to reveal underlying trend

Temperature records contain noise from natural events. El Niño warming cycles, volcanic eruptions that cool the planet temporarily, and solar activity all create short-term fluctuations. These variations can mask longer-term trends.

The research team filtered out these natural influences to isolate the human-caused warming signal. This approach revealed a clear change in the rate of temperature increase beginning around 2013 to 2014. All five datasets showed the same pattern.

Grant Foster explained the method: “We filter out known natural influences, making the underlying long-term warming signal more clearly visible.” The team used both quadratic trend analysis and piecewise linear models. Both approaches confirmed the acceleration independently.

Stefan Rahmstorf, who led the study, noted the strength of the evidence. “The adjusted data show an acceleration with a statistical certainty of over 98%,” he said. This level of confidence is rare in climate science, where natural variability often complicates analysis.

The acceleration becomes visible in data from around 2015 onward. However, the statistical methods show the shift likely began slightly earlier, between 2013 and 2014. This timing aligns with a period of sustained high greenhouse gas emissions and declining aerosol pollution from industrial sources.

Notably, the analysis shows 2023 and 2024 as the warmest years on record. Even after adjusting for El Niño effects, which typically boost global temperatures temporarily, these years remain exceptional. The adjustments make the recent warming appear slightly less extreme, yet the records still stand.

Warming accelerates from steady rate to fastest decade recorded

Between 1970 and 2015, global temperatures rose at approximately 0.2°C per decade. This rate held relatively constant for nearly half a century. Climate models had predicted acceleration as emissions continued, but detecting it required sufficient data and sophisticated statistical tools.

The current warming rate of 0.35°C per decade represents a 75% increase. This makes the past ten years the fastest warming period since instrumental records began in 1880. The change is consistent across all major temperature datasets, strengthening confidence in the finding.

This acceleration does not mean the earlier warming was insignificant. The 0.2°C per decade rate from 1970 to 2015 already represented substantial climate change. However, the jump to 0.35°C per decade marks a clear shift in pace.

The study builds on previous research suggesting warming might be speeding up. Earlier work lacked the statistical power to confirm acceleration with high certainty. This new analysis provides that confirmation through multiple independent methods applied to multiple datasets.

Rahmstorf emphasized the connection to emissions. “How quickly Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to zero,” he stated. The implication is clear: the warming rate responds to human activity.

Temperature rise threatens Paris Agreement limits sooner than expected

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This threshold is measured as a 20-year average, not single-year peaks. Nevertheless, if the 0.35°C per decade rate continues, the long-term breach of 1.5°C could occur before 2030.

Individual years already exceed this threshold temporarily. These brief exceedances signal proximity to the permanent threshold. United Nations assessments use such years as early warning indicators of approaching limits.

Faster warming compresses the timeline for adaptation. Businesses face more frequent extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, and heatwaves. Infrastructure designed for historical climate conditions may fail more quickly than anticipated. Supply chains experience more disruptions.

Sea level rise accelerates with faster warming. Coastal facilities face increased flood risk. Insurance costs rise correspondingly. Companies with operations or suppliers in vulnerable areas need to reassess their risk exposure.

Ecosystem disruption also speeds up. Agricultural yields become less predictable. Water availability changes in key regions. These shifts affect raw material costs and supply reliability. Food and beverage companies face particular pressure.

The acceleration affects regulatory timelines as well. Governments typically tighten emissions rules in response to worsening climate data. UK businesses can expect faster implementation of net zero policies, stricter building standards, and more demanding reporting requirements.

What UK businesses need to understand about accelerating climate change

• Global temperatures now rise at 0.35°C per decade, up from 0.2°C per decade before 2015, representing a 75% acceleration in warming rate.
• Statistical analysis of five major temperature datasets confirms this acceleration with over 98% certainty, using methods that filter out natural climate variations like El Niño events.
• The acceleration became detectable around 2013 to 2014, marking the fastest ten-year warming period since instrumental records began in 1880.
• If this rate continues, the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels may be permanently exceeded before 2030, measured as a 20-year average.
• The study appears in Geophysical Research Letters (DOI: 10.1029/2025GL118804) and was led by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
• Reducing global CO₂ emissions to zero remains the only way to stop further warming acceleration, according to study authors.

Commercial risks compound as warming outpaces previous projections

Physical risks from climate change now arrive faster than many business continuity plans anticipated. Companies that based their climate risk assessments on the older 0.2°C per decade rate need to update their assumptions. Consequently, infrastructure lifespans shorten and adaptation investments may need to be brought forward.

Supply chain vulnerability increases with acceleration. Extreme weather events that were expected to occur once every 20 years may now happen every 10 years. Agricultural suppliers face more volatile growing conditions. Transport networks experience more frequent disruptions. These changes flow through to inventory management, supplier contracts, and business insurance.

Transition risks also intensify. Regulators respond to worsening climate data with tighter rules. The UK government has already strengthened carbon reporting requirements under measures like PPN 06/21 for public sector suppliers. Private sector companies face similar pressure from investors, lenders, and large customers demanding evidence of climate action.

Energy costs remain volatile partly due to the transition away from fossil fuels. However, faster warming may accelerate this transition, creating both risks and opportunities. Companies that delay decarbonization may face stranded assets as regulations tighten. Those that move early can gain competitive advantages in tenders and supply agreements.

Reputational risks grow as stakeholders become more climate-conscious. Customers increasingly prefer suppliers with credible net zero commitments. Employees, particularly younger workers, factor environmental performance into employment decisions. Investors scrutinize climate strategies more closely, affecting access to capital.

For UK small and medium enterprises, these pressures converge in procurement requirements. Many large buyers now require suppliers to measure and reduce their carbon footprints. Our net zero program helps businesses meet carbon reporting requirements for public and private sector tenders. Failure to demonstrate progress can mean exclusion from valuable contracts.

The acceleration in warming also affects scenario planning. Businesses need to model more rapid change in their strategic planning. Investment decisions with 10 or 20 year payback periods must account for climate conditions that may shift faster than historical trends suggested. This applies to property investments, capital equipment, and long-term supply contracts.

Insurance markets are already repricing climate risks. Some regions and sectors face reduced coverage availability or sharply higher premiums. Companies need to understand their exposure and consider whether operational changes could reduce insurance costs or maintain coverage access.

Emissions reduction remains the critical response

The research team emphasizes that warming rate depends directly on emissions levels. Zero net CO₂ emissions would halt additional warming on human timescales. This means business decarbonization efforts have real impact on future climate conditions.

UK businesses face several practical steps. First, measure your current carbon footprint accurately. This includes direct emissions from operations (Scope 1), energy purchases (Scope 2), and supply chain emissions (Scope 3). Many companies underestimate Scope 3, which often represents the largest share.

Second, set science-based reduction targets aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The accelerated warming rate makes ambitious targets more urgent, not less achievable. Targets need clear timelines and interim milestones. Our compliance services support businesses with ESG reporting and target setting.

Third, prioritize high-impact reductions. Energy efficiency improvements often deliver quick wins with positive return on investment. Switching to renewable electricity contracts reduces Scope 2 emissions immediately. Transport and heating present larger challenges but numerous proven solutions exist.

Fourth, engage your supply chain. For most businesses, Scope 3 emissions dwarf direct emissions. Work with suppliers to understand their footprints and support their reduction efforts. This may involve changing specifications, consolidating suppliers, or switching to lower-carbon alternatives. Sustainable procurement guidance helps businesses assess and improve supply chain emissions.

Fifth, prepare for tightening regulations. The UK government will likely accelerate policy measures in response to worsening climate data. Companies that move ahead of regulatory requirements avoid rushed, costly compliance later. Early action also builds organizational capability and staff expertise.

Training helps embed climate considerations across the business. Staff in procurement, operations, and finance all play roles in emissions reduction. SBS Academy provides training on carbon management and Scope 3 reporting for teams at different levels.

Investment in low-carbon technology becomes more financially viable as energy prices remain volatile and carbon costs increase. Heat pumps, electric vehicles, and energy management systems often pay back faster than traditional alternatives when total cost of ownership is calculated properly.

Some businesses can go beyond reduction to removal. Nature-based solutions like woodland creation or peatland restoration remove CO₂ from the atmosphere while providing co-benefits like biodiversity and flood management. These projects can balance residual emissions that are difficult to eliminate entirely.

Further reading

The study discussed in this article was published in Geophysical Research Letters, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Geophysical Union. The full citation is DOI: 10.1029/2025GL118804. Academic libraries and institutional subscriptions provide access to the complete paper.

The Met Office provides UK-focused climate change information including temperature records, projections, and impacts for British regions. Their resources help businesses understand local climate risks.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero publishes UK climate policy, including emissions targets, net zero strategy, and regulatory requirements affecting businesses. This is the primary source for understanding compliance obligations.

The Climate Change Committee serves as the UK’s independent adviser on climate targets and reports annually on progress. Their publications provide evidence-based analysis of UK decarbonization and adaptation needs.

For international climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change produces comprehensive assessment reports synthesizing global research. These reports inform government policy worldwide and represent the scientific consensus.