Global emissions in 2026: The climate challenge ahead
Global emissions edge higher in first half of 2026
Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen again in early 2026. Climate TRACE, a coalition-backed emissions tracking project, reported that total emissions in the first half of this year exceeded the same period in 2025. The increase is modest in percentage terms but substantial in absolute volume. It also confirms that worldwide emissions are still not falling at the pace required to meet international climate commitments.
The latest data come from Climate TRACE's August 2026 update, which extends monthly emissions tracking through June. For that month alone, global emissions reached approximately 4.9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Meanwhile, edie attributed part of the first-half increase to road transportation, which continues to grow as a share of total emissions despite progress in other sectors. The pattern mirrors what Climate TRACE reported for 2025, when full-year emissions hit a new record of 60.63 billion tonnes CO₂e, up half a percent on the previous year.
For UK businesses, this matters because it reflects the broader difficulty of decarbonizing transport and highlights why supply chain emissions remain hard to tackle. Road freight and fleet operations are significant contributors, and the data show that switching to cleaner electricity generation has not been enough to offset rising emissions from vehicles. Consequently, firms working on carbon reporting or public sector tenders will need to address transport emissions more directly.
What Climate TRACE tracks and how the data compare
Climate TRACE is a global emissions inventory that uses satellite imagery, sensor data, and other remote sources to estimate greenhouse gas output across sectors and countries. The project publishes monthly updates alongside annual assessments, covering major sources such as power generation, industry, agriculture, and transport. It aims to provide more granular and frequent emissions data than traditional national inventories, which often lag by two years or more.
In February 2026, Climate TRACE released its full-year 2025 assessment. That report confirmed global emissions reached 60.63 billion tonnes CO₂e, representing a 0.50 percent increase over 2024. The organization also noted that road transportation emissions had climbed 11.2 percent globally since 2015, even as some Nordic countries saw declines thanks to high electric vehicle adoption rates. This divergence illustrates how policy choices and infrastructure investment shape national emission trends within a sector that remains difficult to decarbonize at scale.
The January 2026 monthly release provided an early indication of the year's trajectory. Global emissions for that month totaled 5.3 billion tonnes CO₂e, up 0.3 percent compared with January 2025. Transportation was among the sectors showing year-on-year growth, while some industrial and power sectors posted marginal declines. By August, the organization confirmed that first-half 2026 emissions had exceeded the first half of 2025, extending the upward trend into the current year.
June 2026 emissions stood at roughly 4.9 billion tonnes CO₂e, according to the same update. This figure is slightly lower than the January total, reflecting seasonal variation rather than a sustained downward shift. Monthly fluctuations are normal and influenced by factors such as heating demand, agricultural cycles, and economic activity. However, the first-half comparison removes much of this noise and provides a clearer signal that emissions are still rising, albeit slowly.
Road transport emerges as key driver of 2026 increase
Road transportation has been identified as a primary contributor to the first-half increase. Climate TRACE's own data show that transport emissions in January 2026 reached 792.3 million tonnes CO₂e, up 2.8 percent on the same month in 2025. This sector has grown consistently over the past decade, driven by rising vehicle numbers and freight volumes in developing economies, as well as slower-than-expected electric vehicle rollout in many markets.
The contrast with cleaner sectors is sharp. Renewable electricity capacity has expanded rapidly in recent years, helping to stabilize or reduce emissions from power generation in some regions. Similarly, industrial efficiency gains and fuel switching have delivered modest cuts in manufacturing emissions. Yet these improvements have been partly offset by growth in road transport, which remains heavily reliant on internal combustion engines and petroleum fuels.
Electric vehicle adoption is accelerating in certain countries, particularly in Northern Europe where policy support and charging infrastructure are well established. Climate TRACE's 2025 data showed that road transport emissions fell in the Nordic region over the past decade, even as they rose globally. This suggests that rapid decarbonization of the sector is possible given the right conditions, but also underscores how far most of the world still has to go.
For businesses, the implication is clear. Fleet emissions will come under increasing scrutiny, especially for companies bidding on public contracts or reporting under emerging regulations. Road freight, company cars, and logistics networks all contribute to Scope 1 and Scope 3 emissions, and replacing these with electric or low-carbon alternatives requires both capital investment and infrastructure planning. Firms that delay this transition may face higher costs and compliance risks as policy tightens over the next few years.
Questions over accuracy and data reliability
Climate TRACE's dataset has attracted attention from researchers and policymakers, but it has also faced scrutiny over accuracy. A 2026 academic study presented at the European Geosciences Union conference found large differences between Climate TRACE's city-level road emissions estimates and another inventory. The authors recommended caution when using the data for sub-national policy decisions, suggesting that uncertainties in satellite-based methods could lead to significant errors at smaller geographic scales.
Climate TRACE responded by acknowledging a temporary software bug in an older version of its road transport model, which has since been corrected. The organization stated that current comparisons show much smaller discrepancies and that the global and sectoral totals remain robust. This exchange highlights an important point for businesses using emissions data. Global trends and sector-level figures are generally reliable, but fine-grained estimates for specific cities or facilities should be treated with appropriate caution.
For UK SMEs, the practical takeaway is that Climate TRACE data are most useful as context rather than as precise benchmarks for individual operations. Businesses should rely on direct measurement, fuel consumption records, and recognized calculation methods for their own carbon reporting. Nevertheless, the global picture provided by Climate TRACE helps frame the scale of the challenge and shows where sectoral progress is being made or stalled.
Verified figures from recent Climate TRACE releases
The following data points are taken directly from Climate TRACE's public updates and provide a factual basis for understanding the current emissions trajectory:
- Global emissions in June 2026 reached approximately 4.9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
- Emissions for the first half of 2026 were higher than the first half of 2025, according to the August 2026 data release.
- January 2026 global emissions totaled 5.3 billion tonnes CO₂e, representing a 0.3 percent increase over January 2025.
- Full-year 2025 emissions reached 60.63 billion tonnes CO₂e, up 0.50 percent compared with 2024.
- Transportation emissions in January 2026 were 792.3 million tonnes CO₂e, an increase of 2.8 percent year on year.
- Road transportation emissions rose 11.2 percent globally between 2015 and 2025, based on Climate TRACE's annual assessment.
- The Nordic countries recorded falling road transport emissions over the same period, linked to high electric vehicle uptake.
Why a small percentage rise still matters at global scale
A half-percent annual increase in global emissions may sound insignificant, but at the scale of 60 billion tonnes it represents hundreds of millions of tonnes of additional greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere. Moreover, the direction of travel is what counts. Climate science is clear that global emissions need to fall rapidly this decade to limit warming to 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Instead, emissions are still edging upward or at best plateauing.
This has direct implications for businesses. International climate commitments, national carbon budgets, and sectoral targets all assume a steep downward trajectory starting now. Regulatory pressure will increase as governments try to close the gap between current trends and stated goals. For example, the UK has legislated net zero by 2050 and set interim carbon budgets that require economy-wide action. Companies that have not yet started measuring and reducing emissions will face rising compliance costs and potential exclusion from supply chains or public procurement frameworks.
The persistence of emissions growth also signals that voluntary action alone is unlikely to deliver the necessary reductions. Policy intervention, whether through carbon pricing, vehicle standards, building regulations, or procurement rules, will intensify. Businesses that anticipate these changes and invest early in low-carbon infrastructure and processes will be better positioned than those that wait for mandates.
Transport decarbonization remains the critical constraint
The data make clear that decarbonizing electricity generation is not sufficient to bring down total emissions. Transport, and especially road transport, is now the sector where progress has stalled or reversed in many countries. This reflects several structural challenges. Internal combustion engines dominate the global vehicle fleet, and turnover is slow. Charging infrastructure for electric vehicles is patchy outside a few leading markets. Heavy goods vehicles and long-haul freight face particular barriers, as battery technology and hydrogen alternatives are still developing.
For businesses, this means fleet and logistics emissions will become a focal point for both regulation and competitive advantage. Companies with large vehicle fleets, whether for deliveries, field services, or employee travel, need to model the costs and benefits of transitioning to electric or hybrid vehicles. Those in supply chains need to consider how freight emissions will be allocated and reported under Scope 3 frameworks. Public sector suppliers should note that transport emissions are increasingly factored into tender evaluations, particularly under procurement rules that prioritize social value and carbon reduction.
There is also a regional dimension. Climate TRACE's data show that emissions outcomes vary significantly depending on policy and infrastructure. The Nordic experience demonstrates that high EV adoption can reverse emissions growth in road transport within a decade. However, replicating that success elsewhere requires coordinated investment in charging networks, grid capacity, and vehicle subsidies or mandates. UK businesses operating in or supplying European markets should be aware of these diverging pathways and the compliance obligations that come with them.
What this means for carbon reporting and net zero planning
Firms that report emissions under the Streamlined Energy and Carbon Reporting regime, or that disclose to CDP or other frameworks, will need to ensure their transport data are accurate and complete. Scope 1 emissions from owned vehicles are relatively straightforward to calculate using fuel consumption records. Scope 3 emissions from logistics, business travel, and employee commuting are harder to pin down but increasingly required by investors, customers, and regulators.
The Climate TRACE data provide useful context for benchmarking and understanding sectoral trends, but they are not a substitute for company-specific measurement. Businesses should use recognized emissions factors, such as those published by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, to calculate their own footprints. Where data are incomplete or estimates are necessary, assumptions should be documented and conservative. Transparency in methodology builds credibility and helps demonstrate progress over time.
Net zero planning also needs to reflect the reality that transport emissions are not falling as quickly as hoped. Companies that set science-based targets or commit to net zero by 2040 or 2050 must include credible pathways for decarbonizing their fleets and supply chains. This may involve phased vehicle replacement, route optimization, modal shifts from road to rail, or collaboration with logistics providers on shared solutions. Simply offsetting transport emissions through tree planting or carbon credits is unlikely to meet the standards expected by investors or public sector buyers.
Our net-zero program for carbon reporting compliance helps SMEs develop these pathways and ensure their reporting meets current and anticipated requirements. We also provide SBS Academy training on Scope 3 emissions for businesses that need to understand supply chain footprints in more detail.
Where to find authoritative emissions data and guidance
Businesses looking for further information on emissions trends, reporting requirements, and decarbonization options should consult the following authoritative sources. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero publishes official UK emissions statistics, carbon budgets, and policy updates. Its annual reports provide the most reliable national data and are the basis for compliance and policy planning.
The UK government's greenhouse gas reporting conversion factors are updated each year and provide the emissions factors businesses need to calculate their carbon footprints from energy use, travel, and other activities. These are the standard reference for SECR reporting and other disclosure frameworks.
For broader context on global emissions and sectoral trends, the Climate TRACE platform offers free access to monthly and annual data across countries and sectors. While the data should be used with caution at sub-national scales, they are valuable for understanding global patterns and comparing sectoral performance.
The Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment provides professional guidance on carbon management, reporting standards, and best practice for UK businesses. IEMA's resources are particularly useful for practitioners developing or refining corporate carbon strategies.
Finally, firms involved in public sector supply chains should review the Procurement Policy Note 06/21 on carbon reduction plans, which sets out the requirements for suppliers bidding on contracts above certain thresholds. This includes expectations on transport and supply chain emissions.