Study Shows Slow Progress Towards Global Net Zero by 2090
The world will eventually reach net zero, but decades too late to prevent dangerous levels of warming. That is the central finding of the latest Energy Transition Outlook from DNV, a major energy and maritime advisory organisation. Their forecast puts global carbon neutrality around 2093, not 2050, with warming likely to hit 2.2°C by the end of the century.
For UK businesses navigating carbon reporting requirements, supply chain pressures and tender compliance, this projection carries real weight. It suggests the policy environment will continue to tighten, even as the world misses its stated climate goals. The gap between ambition and delivery is widening, and that creates both risk and obligation for companies trying to plan ahead.
DNV is not a campaign group. It is a global certification and advisory body with deep roots in energy and shipping. Consequently, its forecasts influence capital allocation, regulatory planning and corporate strategy. When an organisation of that standing says current trends will deliver net zero four decades late, businesses need to understand what that means for compliance, investment and competitive position.
Emissions will peak soon but fall too slowly
DNV expects global carbon dioxide emissions to peak in 2026. After that, emissions will decline steadily through to mid-century. However, the rate of decline will not be fast enough to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature limits on time. The forecast shows emissions falling from around 35 gigatonnes in 2024 to roughly 11 gigatonnes by 2060.
The problem is not that decarbonisation has stalled. Progress is happening across renewable energy, electric vehicles and cleaner power generation. Rather, the issue is pace. The energy system is transforming, but unevenly. Some sectors are moving quickly while others lag badly.
Power generation is cleaning up faster than heavy industry, shipping or parts of road freight. Electrification is advancing in passenger vehicles but remains limited in aviation and long-haul trucking. This creates what DNV describes as a two-speed transition, where visible progress in some areas masks slower movement elsewhere.
As a result, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C of warming will be exhausted by 2029 under current trends. That does not mean the world stops emitting in 2029. It means the threshold for limiting warming to 1.5°C will have been crossed, locking in a hotter long-term outcome unless emissions fall much faster than currently projected.
DNV states clearly that "net zero 2050 is beyond reach on current trends." The forecast describes a system in rapid transformation, yet still off the pace for mid-century carbon neutrality. This is not a policy recommendation or a worst-case scenario. It is DNV's assessment of the most likely future based on existing technology deployment rates and policy commitments.
Technology exists but deployment speed remains the constraint
DNV publishes two separate analyses each year. The Energy Transition Outlook is a forecast of what is most likely to happen. The Pathway to Net Zero sets out what would be required to hold warming to 1.5°C. The gap between the two is substantial and growing.
The pathway analysis shows that net zero by 2050 is still technically feasible. The technologies needed to decarbonise power, transport, industry and buildings already exist. Nevertheless, deployment would need to accelerate dramatically across every sector and every region. DNV describes this scenario as "feasible but extremely challenging."
The challenge is not invention. It is scaling up renewable generation, building out transmission infrastructure, electrifying industrial heat, retrofitting buildings, deploying carbon capture and expanding green hydrogen production at a pace far beyond anything currently planned. Each of those areas faces capital constraints, supply chain bottlenecks, planning delays and political resistance.
For businesses, this distinction matters. Companies cannot assume that innovation alone will close the gap. The question is whether policy will tighten fast enough to force the necessary investment and deployment. If it does, businesses will face stricter carbon reporting, tougher supply chain standards and higher compliance costs. If it does not, they will face greater physical climate risk and reputational pressure.
Implications for UK businesses across compliance and procurement
This forecast has direct consequences for UK companies, particularly those tendering for public sector contracts, managing complex supply chains or operating in regulated sectors. The trajectory DNV describes implies a policy landscape that continues to ratchet up pressure, even if global emissions fall more slowly than hoped.
First, carbon reporting requirements will not relax. UK companies already face mandatory climate disclosure under the Streamlined Energy and Carbon Reporting regulations. Larger firms must report under the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures framework. Meanwhile, our net-zero program for carbon reporting compliance supports businesses navigating PPN 06/21, the procurement policy note requiring suppliers to publish carbon reduction plans when bidding for central government contracts above £5 million.
If the world is on track for 2.2°C of warming rather than 1.5°C, governments are likely to tighten those requirements further. Expect more granular Scope 3 emissions disclosure, stricter verification standards and broader coverage of smaller contracts. Public sector buyers will demand evidence of genuine decarbonisation, not just reporting.
Second, supply chain pressure will intensify. Many UK businesses source materials, components or services from sectors DNV identifies as lagging, including steel, cement, chemicals and shipping. Those sectors face rising carbon costs through mechanisms like the UK Emissions Trading Scheme and the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism from the European Union.
As those costs feed through, businesses will need to assess supplier carbon performance more carefully. Procurement teams will face questions about embodied carbon in materials, transport emissions and supplier decarbonisation plans. Companies that cannot answer those questions risk losing contracts or paying more for compliant alternatives.
Third, physical climate risk will grow. A 2.2°C pathway means more frequent extreme weather, greater disruption to logistics and higher insurance costs. Businesses with long-lived assets, international supply chains or exposure to agriculture, water or coastal infrastructure will need to build climate resilience into their planning.
Fourth, the credibility of corporate net-zero pledges will come under greater scrutiny. If global net zero is delayed by four decades, stakeholders will question whether company-level targets set for 2030 or 2040 are realistic. Investors, customers and employees will expect clear evidence of interim progress, not distant promises.
What UK businesses need to understand now
- DNV forecasts global carbon dioxide emissions will peak in 2026 before declining steadily, but not fast enough to reach net zero until around 2093.
- This trajectory is consistent with approximately 2.2°C of warming by 2100, well above the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target.
- The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C will be exhausted by 2029 on current trends, according to the forecast.
- DNV describes the transition as two-paced, with clean power advancing faster than heavy industry, shipping and parts of transport.
- The forecast is not a policy blueprint but a projection of the most likely outcome based on existing technology deployment and policy settings.
- A separate DNV pathway analysis shows that net zero by 2050 remains feasible but would require deployment rates far beyond current plans.
- For UK businesses, the forecast implies continued tightening of carbon reporting, procurement standards and supply chain requirements.
Planning for a slower but still carbon-constrained transition
The practical challenge for UK businesses is how to plan investment and operations in an environment where climate policy will tighten, but global emissions will fall more slowly than hoped. That combination creates uncertainty, but it also clarifies some near-term priorities.
Start by treating carbon reporting as infrastructure, not compliance theatre. Businesses that understand their emissions profile, particularly across Scope 3 supply chains, will be better positioned to respond as reporting requirements expand. SBS compliance support for carbon reporting helps companies build the data systems and processes needed to meet current and anticipated disclosure rules.
Next, assess supply chain exposure to carbon pricing and regulation. Sectors like steel, cement, chemicals and freight will face rising costs as carbon prices increase and border adjustments take effect. Procurement teams should map which suppliers operate in high-carbon sectors, what decarbonisation plans they have in place and where alternative sources might be available.
Consider how the policy environment might shift. If global emissions are falling too slowly, governments will face pressure to tighten domestic rules. That could mean higher carbon prices, stricter energy efficiency standards, expanded reporting obligations or new sector-specific regulations. Businesses that anticipate those changes will have more time to adapt.
Think about how to communicate your own decarbonisation plans. Stakeholders will increasingly distinguish between companies making measurable progress and those relying on distant targets. Clear interim milestones, transparent data and honest reporting about challenges will matter more than aspirational commitments.
Finally, build resilience into long-term planning. A 2.2°C pathway means greater physical risk to infrastructure, supply chains and operations. Businesses with exposure to coastal flooding, water stress, extreme heat or supply chain disruption should integrate those risks into capital planning and site selection.
None of this means businesses should abandon decarbonisation efforts because global progress is too slow. On the contrary, the likelihood of policy tightening makes early action more valuable. Companies that reduce emissions now will face lower compliance costs later. Those that delay will find themselves reacting under pressure.
Where to find authoritative guidance and analysis
DNV's full Energy Transition Outlook is available on the DNV Energy Transition Outlook website, providing detailed regional and sectoral forecasts. The report includes data on power generation, transport, industry and buildings across multiple scenarios.
For UK policy context, the UK government's Net Zero Strategy sets out the domestic policy framework for reducing emissions to net zero by 2050. The strategy covers power, transport, buildings, industry and carbon removal, alongside details on how the transition will be funded and delivered.
Businesses managing Scope 3 emissions and supply chain carbon should consult the Greenhouse Gas Protocol's Scope 3 Standard, which provides the methodological framework used by most corporate carbon reporting systems worldwide. Similarly, sustainable procurement support from SBS helps UK companies meet public sector supplier requirements and build low-carbon supply chains.
For sector-specific decarbonisation pathways, the Climate Change Committee publishes annual progress reports assessing UK performance against carbon budgets. These reports provide detailed analysis of which sectors are on track and which are lagging, offering a useful benchmark for business planning.