COP31 Action Tracker: Lula’s Re-election and Jackdaw Field Approval
COP31 will take place in Antalya from 9 to 20 November 2026. Türkiye will host the summit while Australia leads formal negotiations. However, both countries face mounting criticism over domestic energy policies that appear to contradict the climate commitments they will advocate on the international stage. Meanwhile, Brazil's recent election result and the UK's approval of new North Sea gas development add further complexity to questions about whether national governments can deliver on the pledges they make at global climate conferences.
For UK businesses, these developments matter because they shape the policy environment in which you operate. Trade agreements, procurement standards, supply chain expectations and compliance frameworks all reflect the outcomes of international climate diplomacy. When host nations face credibility gaps between rhetoric and action, it affects the pace and consistency of regulatory change at home.
Understanding what happens in the lead-up to COP31 helps you anticipate shifts in reporting requirements, carbon pricing mechanisms and tender criteria. It also clarifies where policy momentum may stall and where pressure for stronger standards is likely to build.
Brazil's election shapes climate diplomacy ahead of Antalya
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won re-election as Brazil's president. He defeated conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff and is expected to attend COP31 as one of the summit's most prominent political figures. His return reinforces Brazil's central role in global climate discussions, particularly on deforestation, biodiversity and climate finance.
Brazil controls most of the Amazon rainforest. Consequently, its domestic environmental policies carry significant weight in international negotiations. Lula's government has promoted stronger protection for the Amazon and positioned Brazil as a leader on forest conservation. This stance contrasts sharply with the previous administration's approach.
Nevertheless, Brazil's climate credibility remains mixed. Shortly before COP30, the government approved exploratory oil drilling near the mouth of the Amazon. This decision drew criticism from environmental groups and highlighted the tension between stated climate ambitions and continued fossil fuel development. That contradiction will likely follow Lula to Antalya and influence how other nations assess Brazil's next round of climate commitments.
Health Minister Alexandre Padilha described the election result as "a victory for the fight against climate change" over climate denial, according to AFP reporting. The comment reflects the political significance of Lula's win. However, credibility ultimately depends on implementation. Deforestation rates, fossil fuel investment decisions and the pace of clean energy deployment will determine whether Brazil's international positioning translates into measurable emissions reductions.
Jackdaw approval exposes UK's energy security dilemma
The UK government has approved further development of the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea. Shell operates the project, which is designed to increase domestic gas production. Officials argue that North Sea output supports energy security and reduces reliance on imported supplies. Critics counter that new fossil fuel infrastructure extends gas consumption and conflicts with the emissions reductions required under the Paris Agreement.
This decision illustrates a policy tension facing many governments. Energy security concerns have driven continued investment in oil and gas even as countries publicly commit to transitioning away from fossil fuels. For the UK, which has positioned itself as a climate leader through its net zero target and clean power plans, the contradiction is particularly visible.
Jackdaw also highlights the gap between production policy and consumption policy. Domestic gas production does not directly determine total UK emissions. However, approving new supply influences infrastructure investment, locks in long-term extraction commitments and can slow the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy, efficiency measures and electrification.
This matters for UK businesses in several ways. First, it creates uncertainty about the pace of regulatory change. Second, it affects the credibility of government commitments that underpin sustainability strategies and net zero programs. Third, it influences the speed at which support mechanisms, subsidies and compliance frameworks shift from fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives.
Türkiye's coal expansion undermines host credibility
Türkiye will hold the COP31 presidency at the Antalya EXPO Center. Australia will oversee negotiations. This division of responsibility means both countries will face scrutiny not only on their diplomatic performance but also on their domestic energy policies. Recent analysis by environmental organisation Urgewald identified continued coal expansion plans in both nations.
Coal supplied 34% of Türkiye's electricity in 2025. Wind and solar together accounted for 22%, according to data cited by Eco-Business from Urgewald. Türkiye also provides more than €2.4 billion in annual coal subsidies. These figures raise questions about how quickly proposed electrification plans can deliver emissions reductions without parallel cuts in coal use.
Türkiye remains committed to expanding the Afşin-Elbistan power station. The environment ministry has appealed a court ruling that overturned the environmental impact assessment for new units. Separately, Cenal Elektrik has proposed a 1,050 megawatt expansion in Çanakkale. Reports indicate that the Cenal plant received approval in June to expand from 1,320 MW to 2,370 MW. Cengiz Holding, associated with the project, has also been named a COP31 Sustainable Transformation Partner.
Duygu Kutluay of Beyond Fossil Fuels said that new coal plans and mining activity "highlight the contradiction between Turkey's energy strategy and the climate goals it seeks to advance as host of the summit." The comment captures a central concern: how can a country credibly lead climate negotiations while simultaneously approving new coal capacity?
For UK businesses, this matters because host-country credibility shapes the ambition and enforceability of outcomes. If the presidency lacks domestic policy coherence, it becomes harder to secure binding commitments from other nations. That, in turn, affects the stability of international frameworks that inform UK carbon reporting, procurement standards and supply chain expectations.
Australia's negotiating role complicated by coal exports
Australia is a major coal exporter and continues to face criticism over new mines and mine extensions. Urgewald's assessment identified an Australian pipeline of projects that, although smaller than those of the largest coal-expanding countries, could undermine the country's authority as lead negotiator at COP31.
Chris Bowen has been named President of Negotiations. His role requires acting as an honest broker among countries with sharply different interests. Any perception that Canberra is protecting fossil fuel expansion could make it more difficult to persuade developing economies and vulnerable states to accept stronger mitigation commitments.
The negotiation president's credibility directly affects the quality of outcomes. Strong agreements require trust that the broker is not favouring national economic interests over collective climate goals. When the lead negotiator approves domestic coal projects while asking others to phase out fossil fuels, that trust erodes.
This dynamic influences UK businesses because weaker international agreements create regulatory uncertainty. If COP31 produces only incremental commitments, governments may delay domestic policy implementation. That slows the transition, creates uneven playing fields and makes long-term investment planning more difficult.
Civic space restrictions raise participation concerns
Climate negotiations depend on meaningful participation by activists, journalists, Indigenous representatives, local communities and non-governmental organisations. Amnesty International has warned that civic space restrictions in Türkiye could limit that participation.
The organisation reported that Turkish authorities had launched a nationwide operation targeting LGBTI+ organisations, activists and human rights defenders. It also cited arrests, raids and restrictions affecting social media accounts belonging to activists, journalists and human rights groups.
Amnesty raised concerns about provisions in the host-country agreement between Türkiye and the UN. Article 11.11 requires participants to respect Turkish laws and regulations and refrain from interfering in the country's "internal affairs." Article 11.12 includes language relating to waivers of immunity. Amnesty called on Türkiye and the UN to guarantee that participants can "speak, organise, report and protest peacefully without discrimination, intimidation, surveillance, detention or reprisals."
An alternative People's Climate Summit is scheduled for Antalya from 15 to 18 November. This event may provide a venue for civil society groups to raise issues that receive limited attention inside the official process. The extent to which alternative forums can operate freely will be a significant test of whether COP31 allows genuine participation or simply manages diplomatic optics.
For UK businesses, civic space matters because non-governmental scrutiny drives accountability. When activists, journalists and affected communities can challenge government positions, it increases the likelihood that pledges translate into enforceable policy. Conversely, when participation is restricted, commitments become easier to abandon.
Second global stocktake launches during COP31
COP31 is the 31st annual Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The conference is expected to focus heavily on implementing existing commitments under the Paris Agreement rather than simply adopting new headline pledges. It will also launch the second global stocktake of climate action, assessing progress against the goals of the Paris Agreement and identifying where further action is required.
The leaders' summit is scheduled for 11 to 12 November. This event is intended to secure political momentum, encourage stronger national commitments and advance cooperation on climate finance, electrification, resilience and emissions reduction. The stocktake process matters because it establishes a shared understanding of where progress has stalled and where policy gaps remain.
For UK businesses, the stocktake shapes future regulatory expectations. If the assessment identifies weak implementation in specific sectors, governments are more likely to introduce stricter reporting requirements, procurement standards or carbon pricing mechanisms. Understanding which sectors face heightened scrutiny helps you anticipate where compliance pressures will intensify.
The stocktake also influences international finance flows. When assessments reveal gaps in developing-country capacity, donor nations may redirect funding toward specific technologies or sectors. For UK firms engaged in international supply chains or export markets, these shifts create both risks and opportunities.
What UK businesses should focus on
COP31 will not produce a single transformational agreement. Instead, it will test whether governments can translate existing pledges into measurable domestic action. The credibility gap between international commitments and national energy policies is the central issue.
For UK businesses, several practical considerations arise. First, regulatory timelines may become less predictable if host-country contradictions undermine confidence in international frameworks. Consequently, you should build flexibility into compliance planning and avoid assuming that announced timelines will hold.
Second, supply chain expectations are likely to tighten regardless of COP31 outcomes. Large procurement buyers, particularly in the public sector, continue to embed sustainability criteria into tender processes. Our sustainable procurement support helps businesses meet these evolving requirements without overcommitting resources to speculative compliance measures.
Third, carbon reporting requirements will continue to expand. The second global stocktake will identify gaps in current disclosure practices. Governments will respond by strengthening mandatory reporting frameworks. If you are subject to PPN 06/21 or similar procurement standards, ensuring your carbon data is accurate and auditable now will reduce costs later. Our net zero program supports businesses with carbon reporting compliance and credible emissions reduction planning.
Fourth, civic participation issues matter more than they might initially appear. When civil society cannot scrutinise government commitments, enforcement weakens. That creates competitive disadvantages for businesses that invest in genuine sustainability while competitors delay action. Therefore, monitoring how governments respond to participation concerns provides early signals about enforcement credibility.
Fifth, the tension between energy security and decarbonisation will persist. Jackdaw approval demonstrates that governments prioritise energy security when supply risks rise. For energy-intensive manufacturers, this creates both short-term cost relief and long-term transition uncertainty. Planning for both scenarios is more prudent than assuming one policy direction will dominate.
Essential facts and dates for COP31
- COP31 takes place from 9 to 20 November 2026 at the Antalya EXPO Center in Türkiye.
- Türkiye holds the conference presidency, with Murat Kurum serving as president-designate.
- Australia leads negotiations, with Chris Bowen named President of Negotiations.
- The leaders' summit is scheduled for 11 to 12 November 2026.
- The conference will launch the second global stocktake, assessing progress against Paris Agreement goals.
- Coal supplied 34% of Türkiye's electricity in 2025, while wind and solar combined accounted for 22%.
- Türkiye provides more than €2.4 billion in annual coal subsidies.
- The alternative People's Climate Summit will take place in Antalya from 15 to 18 November 2026.
Implementation credibility determines COP31 success
The central challenge at COP31 is not a lack of climate targets. Most countries have submitted nationally determined contributions and net zero pledges. The challenge is implementation credibility. When host nations approve new coal capacity and negotiating leaders expand fossil fuel exports, other countries question whether commitments are genuine or merely diplomatic theatre.
This credibility problem has direct commercial consequences. Uncertainty about whether governments will enforce their own pledges makes long-term investment decisions harder. It creates uneven playing fields where some competitors delay action while others incur costs to meet anticipated standards. It also complicates supply chain management when procurement buyers demand carbon reductions but government policy signals remain contradictory.
Three factors will determine whether COP31 produces meaningful progress. First, whether governments translate pledges into measurable domestic emissions cuts. Second, whether the conference delivers practical progress on finance, electrification, resilience and fossil fuel reduction. Third, whether activists, journalists and affected communities can participate safely and meaningfully.
For UK businesses, the key takeaway is that international climate diplomacy shapes domestic regulatory trends, but implementation remains uneven. Building compliance capacity now, based on current requirements rather than speculative future standards, provides the most cost-effective path forward. Monitoring how governments resolve the contradictions exposed in the lead-up to COP31 will help you anticipate where regulatory pressure intensifies and where it stalls.
Where to find authoritative information
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change publishes official COP31 documentation, including negotiation texts, national submissions and stocktake assessments. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero provides updates on UK climate policy, emissions targets and international commitments.
For broader analysis of energy policy and climate diplomacy, the International Energy Agency offers data-driven reports on global energy trends, decarbonisation pathways and policy implementation. Amnesty International's reporting on civic space provides context on participation issues that affect the legitimacy of international negotiations.
These sources offer factual grounding for understanding how international climate developments translate into regulatory change and commercial expectations for UK businesses.